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في هذا المقال سنتناول بالشرح تعريف مفهوم التنبؤ بالمبيعات، وأهميته، وأهدافه بجانب كيفية التنبؤ بالمبيعات، بالإضافة إلى أهم أساليبه وطرقه. " /> <pre class="cake-debug"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr20-trace').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr20-trace').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none');"><b>Warning</b> (2)</a>: Undefined variable $category [<b>APP/views/layouts/hub_layout.ctp</b>, line <b>24</b>]<div id="cakeErr20-trace" class="cake-stack-trace" style="display: none;"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr20-code').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr20-code').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Code</a><div id="cakeErr20-code" class="cake-code-dump" style="display: none;"><pre><code><span style="color: #000000"></span></code> <code><span style="color: #000000">        if (Configure::read() > 0) {</span></code> <span class="code-highlight"><code><span style="color: #000000">            include ($___viewFn);</span></code></span></pre></div><pre class="stack-trace">include - APP/views/layouts/hub_layout.ctp, line 24 View::_render() - APP/cake/libs/view/view.php, line 736 View::renderLayout() - APP/cake/libs/view/view.php, line 494 View::render() - APP/cake/libs/view/view.php, line 440 Controller::render() - APP/cake/libs/controller/controller.php, line 912 HubController::index() - APP/controllers/hub_controller.php, line 47 Dispatcher::_invoke() - APP/cake/dispatcher.php, line 205 Dispatcher::dispatch() - APP/cake/dispatcher.php, line 172 [main] - APP/webroot/index.php, line 303</pre></div></pre><pre class="cake-debug"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr21-trace').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr21-trace').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none');"><b>Warning</b> (2)</a>: Trying to access array offset on value of type null [<b>APP/views/layouts/hub_layout.ctp</b>, line <b>24</b>]<div id="cakeErr21-trace" class="cake-stack-trace" style="display: none;"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr21-code').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr21-code').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Code</a><div id="cakeErr21-code" class="cake-code-dump" style="display: none;"><pre><code><span style="color: #000000"></span></code> <code><span style="color: #000000">        if (Configure::read() > 0) {</span></code> <span class="code-highlight"><code><span style="color: #000000">            include ($___viewFn);</span></code></span></pre></div><pre class="stack-trace">include - APP/views/layouts/hub_layout.ctp, line 24 View::_render() - APP/cake/libs/view/view.php, line 736 View::renderLayout() - APP/cake/libs/view/view.php, line 494 View::render() - APP/cake/libs/view/view.php, line 440 Controller::render() - APP/cake/libs/controller/controller.php, line 912 HubController::index() - APP/controllers/hub_controller.php, line 47 Dispatcher::_invoke() - APP/cake/dispatcher.php, line 205 Dispatcher::dispatch() - APP/cake/dispatcher.php, line 172 [main] - APP/webroot/index.php, line 303</pre></div></pre><br /> <b>Warning</b>: Trying to access array offset on value of type null in <b>/home/fortebounce/public_html/views/layouts/hub_layout.ctp</b> on line <b>24</b><br /> التنبؤ بالمبيعات: ما هو وأهميته وأهدافه والأساليب المستخدمة لتنفيذه
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المركز التعليمي/ إدارة المبيعات

ما هو التنبؤ بالمبيعات وافضل الأساليب لتنفيذه

تم النشر في :
8 يوليو 2024
فريق عمل دفترة
التنبؤ بالمبيعات

يعد الهدف من عملية تقييم المؤسسات والشركات التجارية، هو التعرف على مدى قدرتها على تحقيق الأرباح التي تمكنها من البقاء والنجاح في سوق المال والأعمال.

ولذلك تجد المؤسسات نفسها أحيانًا في مواقف عديدة تحتاج إلى اتخاذ قرارات، قد يكون لها تأثير على أرباح المؤسسة ومركزها المالي الناتج عن التطور المتسارع وتغير أحوال الأسواق المالية. 

ولا يمكن للإدارة اتخاذ قرارت وفقًا للتخمين أو الخبرة، أو حتى من خلال الأساليب التقليدية القديمة، فهناك العديد من العوامل التي يجب أن يتم وضعها في الاعتبار قبل اتخاذ القرارت مثل القوائم المالية، المركز المالي للمؤسسة، بجانب مصروفاتها وأرباحها، وأيضًا نسبة وحجم مبيعاتها.

ولذلك أصبح الوضع السائد حاليًا في المؤسسات، هو تطبيق الطرق الحديثة التي تعتمد على أدوات التحليل وطرق القياس الكمية، ومن أهم الأساليب الكمية البرمجة والتنبؤ بالمبيعات، وتسيير المخزون.

وفي هذا المقال سنتناول بالشرح تعريف مفهوم التنبؤ بالمبيعات، وأهميته، وأهدافه بجانب كيفية التنبؤ بالمبيعات، بالإضافة إلى أهم أساليبه وطرقه.

 

مُلخص النقاط الرئيسية 

  • التنبؤ بالمبيعات هو عملية تقدير الإيرادات المتوقع أن تحققها الشركة من بيع منتجاتها أو خدماتها خلال فترة زمنية مُحددة. 
  • هناك 3 أنواع من التنبؤ بالمبيعات هي التنبؤ بالمبيعات على المدى القصير، والتنبؤ بالمبيعات على مدى متوسط، والتنبؤ بالمبيعات طويل المدى.
  • تبرز أهمية التنبؤ بالمبيعات من خلال العناصر الآتية:- تحقيق التوازن بين العرض والطلب، التخطيط المالي، والإستفادة منه على جوانب العمل المختلفة، ويساعد في تحديد أهداف مبيعات واقعية، والتعرف على نقاط الضعف والقوة في المؤسسة، وكسب ثقة المستثمرين والشركاء، والمساهمة في تقييم أداء قسم المبيعات، وتحديد أسعار المنتجات. 
  • يتم التنبؤ بالمبيعات بناء على طرق توقع المبيعات وتشمل السلاسل الزمنية، والحكم الشخصي، والتنبؤ التاريخي، واختبارات السوق الميدانية، ومقابلة العملاء، والمبيعات المُشابهة والسابقة، وأسلوب الخط المستقيم، والطريقة الاقتصادية، والانحدار الخطي، والنسب المئوية.
  • أبرز العوامل التي تؤثر على التنبؤ بالمبيعات الاتجاهات السوقية، واهتمامات العملاء، واستراتيجيات التسويق، والمنافسة. 

 

تعريف مفهوم التنبؤ بالمبيعات

يمكن تعريف التنبؤ بالمبيعات على أنه العملية التي تتضمن العديد من الخطوات التي يتم تطبيقها من أجل توقع أو تقدير حجم مبيعات خلال مدة أو فترة زمنية محددة. ولا يقتصر حجم المبيعات هنا فقط على السلع والخدمات المحسوسة، بل يشمل أيضًا المبيعات الالكترونية وما تقدمه الشركة أو المؤسسة لعملائها من خدمات.

وتعتبر عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات هي سلوك إداري ضروري، يساعد المؤسسات على التخطيط للأعمال والأنشطة التجارية على المدى القريب أو البعيد، تبعًا للنشاط التجاري للمؤسسة، وتتم هذه العملية وفقًا لأحدث الأساليب العلمية.

 

أنواع التنبؤ بالمبيعات 

تلجأ المؤسسات لعمل دراسات الجدوى، وتشمل هذه الدراسات عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات لفترة محددة من الزمن، وهناك ثلاث أنواع من التنبؤ بالمبيعات، وهي:

 

التنبؤ بالمبيعات قصير المدى

تكون عملية التنبؤ هنا لفترة لا تزيد عن السنة، وقد تكون ربع سنوية أو نصف سنوية.

 

التنبؤ بالمبيعات متوسط المدى

تمتد عملية التنبؤ هنا لفترة أطول من السنة، وأقل من ثلاث سنوات.

 

التنبؤ بالمبيعات طويل المدى 

تكون عملية التنبؤ هنا لفترة أطول من ثلاث سنوات، ويجب التركيز هنا على العديد من العوامل الاجتماعية والاقتصادية للعميل، بجانب الظروف العالمية والمحلية للسوق، والتي تؤثر على نسبة الأرباح والمبيعات.

 

أهمية التنبؤ بالمبيعات

تعد المبيعات هي واجهة المؤسسة، كما أنها أحد أهم مقاييس مدى نجاح المؤسسة في تحقيق أهدافها، سواء كانت هذه المؤسسة كبيرة أو متوسطة أو حتى ناشئة.

 

ولذلك تعد عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات أحد أهم المهام التي تقوم بها إدارة المبيعات في المؤسسات، وفيما يلي أهمية عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات:

  • تكمن أهمية عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات في تحقيق توازن بين العرض والطلب، مثل طلب العميل لخدمة أو منتج ما، والمعروض من منتجات وخدمات على أرض الواقع.
  • كما أنها تعد ركيزة أساسية لمرحلة التخطيط، حيث لا يمكن وضع خطة دون أن يكون هناك تنبؤ وتوقعات عن المستقبل لكشف أبعاده، ثم إعداد الترتيبات اللازمة لمواجهة الأحداث والمخاطر، ولذلك فعملية التنبؤ تعد أهم خطوات عمليات التطوير والتخطيط لكافة قطاعات المؤسسة.
  • تتضمن عملية التنبؤ جميع نواحي الأنشطة والمشروعات، حيث يتم التنبؤ بكمية الأعمال المتوقع حدوثها، وحجم الأموال والمصروفات اللازمة، بجانب عدد الموظفين والمعدات اللازمة لهذه الأنشطة.
  • تؤثر عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات على برامج الإنفاق الاستثماري وسياسات التسويق، بالإضافة لأنظمة العمل والرقابة.
  • تساعد عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات على معرفة نقاط القوة والضعف في المنتجات والخدمات المقدمة، مما يساعد الإدارة فيما بعد على التطوير، وتقليل نسبة الأخطاء أو القضاء عليها.
  • تساهم عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات في تحديد جداول الشراء والإنتاج والتخزين، بناء على تحديد أهداف مبيعات واقعية.
  • تساعد في اتخاذ قرارات التوسع المستقبلية، مثل إطلاق خط إنتاج جديد، والقيام بعمليات الاستحواذ أو فتح منفذ بيع جديد.
  • تكمن أهمية التنبؤ بالمبيعات في المساهمة على تقييم أداء فرق ومندوبي المبيعات، وتحديد ما إذا كان تم تحقيق هذه الأهداف أو تجاوزها أو عدم تحقيقها، ومن ثم تحفيز الفرق وتوجيههم بالشكل المناسب لتحقيق الأهداف.
  • كسب ثقة المستثمرين والشركاء من خلال الصورة الواضحة الناتجة من التنبؤ بالإمكانيات والقدرات البيعية للشركة وجدارتها في تحقيق أرباح من المبيعات.

 

اقرأ أيضًا: كيفية حساب عمولة المبيعات وعناصرها

 

أهداف التنبؤ بالمبيعات

يمكن القول أن عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات هي الوصول لرقم المبيعات التقديرية سواء كان هذا الرقم أو النسبة تعبر عن كمية أو قيمة ما خلال فترة زمنية محددة، ووفقًا لهذه العملية تتخذ إدارة المؤسسة العديد من القرارات، ولذلك يمكن القول أن عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات تعد حلقة الوصل بين المؤسسة والسوق الذي تعمل فيه.

 

ويمكن تلخيص أهداف عملية التنبؤ المالي على النحو التالي:

  • تساعد عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات على وضع ميزانية تقديرية لمبيعات الأنشطة التجارية.
  • المحافظة على حصة ومكانة المؤسسة في السوق، وتقدير حجم مبيعاتها على جميع الأصعدة، حيث تعتبر عملية التنبؤ المالي هي أساس التخطيط لمعظم الأنشطة الإنتاجية والتسويقية للمؤسسة.
  • معرفة رغبات وطلبات العملاء، ثم تقديم الخدمات والمنتجات التي تلبي رغبات العملاء وفقًا لنتائج هذه العملية.
  • تقدير تكاليف المواد الخام اللازمة للإنتاج، بجانب نوعية وتكاليف العمالة المطلوبة، بالإضافة إلى تحديد مواقع البيع والتسويق الفعالة التي يجب توافرها، ومعرفة أفضل الأوقات والمواسم مبيعًا والتي يجب التركيز عليها.
  • تحديد تكلفة الحملات التسويقية للمنتجات والخدمات التي تقدمها المؤسسة، وتطوير استراتيجية المبيعات والتسويق.
  • تحديد أسعار المنتجات والخدمات وفقًا لحالة السوق، وطلبات العملاء.
  • المساعدة في تحديد كمية الإنتاج والمخزون وفقًا للموارد المتاحة، وذلك تجنبًا لحالات الكساد.
  • تقييم أداء مندوبي المبيعات.
  • تطوير الموارد والكوادر البشرية التابعة لإدارة المبيعات، وذلك عن طريق عقد دورات تدريبية، ومساعدة فريق المبيعات على تحقيق أهدافهم من خلال تصحيح المسار.
  • توقع الصعوبات والمخاطر التي من الممكن أن تواجه المؤسسة في المستقبل، وعمل التدابير اللازمة لمواجهتها، وذلك من خلال توفير جميع المعلومات التي تساعد في تطبيق خطوات بغرض تحسين وضع المؤسسة.

 

كيفية التنبؤ بالمبيعات

تشير العديد من الدراسات إلى أن المؤسسة التي تتوقع حجم مبيعاتها في فترة زمنية محددة، يمكن أن تزيد أرباحها بنسبة 10% على أساس سنوي.

 

وفيما يلي، أهم خطوات التنبؤ بالمبيعات:

  1. يجب تحديد الغاية والهدف من عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات، من أجل تحديد الأسلوب والطريقة الأمثل لتطبيق هذه العملية.
  2.   تقسيم الأنشطة والمنتجات لعدة أقسام، فعلى سبيل المثال يمكن لشركة المنتجات الغذائية تقسيم منتجاتها لعدة أقسام وقطاعات مثل منتجات ألبان، لحوم ودواجن، وغيرها.
  3. جمع بيانات ودراسات سابقة عن المؤسسة وعن المنتج والخدمة المقدمة، بجانب معرفة كل ما يتعلق بالجمهور المستهدف بشكل دوري.
  4. تحديد بعض المتغيرات والعوامل المؤثرة في حجم المبيعات مثل سعر السلعة أو الخدمة، الفترة الزمنية التي يحتاجها العميل لتجربة وتقييم المنتجات والخدمات، بالإضافة إلى المدة الزمنية الضرورية لإعادة تجربة المنتج.
  5. وضع جدول زمني محدد لتوقع حجم المبيعات، فمن المهم تحديد المدة الزمنية التي يجب أن تشملها عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات سواء كانت طويلة أو قصيرة المدى، ومن الأفضل أن تكون مدة التوقعات من ثلاث لخمس سنوات حتى تتضمن العملية معلومات تاريخية مفصلة.
  6. توثيق عمليات البيع والشراء من البداية للنهاية، حيث أن عمليات البيع والشراء التي لا يتم إتمامها بشكل جيد يمكن أن تؤثر في دقة النتائج.
  7. تحديد حجم المبيعات المطلوبة، حيث تحتاج كل العمليات لهدف معين للقياس على أساسه، فلا يمكن تقييم حجم المبيعات، إذا لم يكن هناك نسبة من الأرباح تسعى المؤسسة للوصول إليها.
  8. تحديد أسلوب وطريقة التنبؤ المالي الأنسب، وذلك يكون وفقًا لنشاط الشركة وأهدافها.
  9. رصد النتائج وتحليلها.
  10. ووفقًا لكل المعلومات والخطوات السابقة، يتم وضع تقديرات لحجم المبيعات في الفترة المقبلة مع الأخذ في الاعتبار الموارد المتاحة والوضع المالي للمؤسسة، ثم يتم وضع ميزانية تقديرية للمبيعات، ويتم توزيع الأدوار على جميع قطاعات الشركة لتحقيق الأهداف والمبيعات المتوقعة.

 

طرق وأساليب التنبؤ بالمبيعات

إذا كنت على وشك البدء في عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات، فهناك العديد من الطرق والأساليب التي يمكن تطبيقها، حيث يمكن دمج أكثر من طريقة في عملية واحدة، وفيما يلي أهم طرق وأساليب التنبؤ بالمبيعات:

 

1- السلاسل الزمنية

هي مجموعة القياسات والتي يتم من خلالها دراسة حجم مبيعات سلعة أو خدمة ما، خلال فترات زمنية متتابعة متساوية في الطول، ويكون بناء السلسلة الزمنية في شكل معادلات تتكون من متغيرات داخلية وخارجية.

 

2- الحكم الشخصي أو الكيفي 

وهو التوقع الشخصي وفقًا للخبرة، ويتم تطبيق هذه الطريقة في حالات محددة فقط، وذلك في حالة عدم القدرة على تحليل حالة وظروف السوق بشكل كمي، مما يعني عدم توافر معلومات تاريخية أو نسب وأرقام عن المبيعات.

حيث يتم تحديد العوامل التي تؤثر على المبيعات مثل دخل العملاء، مواقع نقاط البيع، والعوامل الديموغرافية للجمهور المستهدف.

ويمكن هنا الاعتماد على رأي الخبراء في المجال مثل تعيين بعض المستشارين والخبراء في رسم بعض التوقعات حول نسب مبيعات وأرباح الشركة المتوقعة، ثم يتم تكليف مدير التسويق لمراجعة توقعات الخبراء.

 كما يمكن اللجوء لرجال الأعمال حيث تكون تصوراتهم وفقًا لنشاط الشركة وتوجهات الشركة.

ويتم أيضًا الاعتماد على رأي مندوبي المبيعات لعمل توقعات حول حجم مبيعات منتج أو خدمة ما، وذلك بسبب خبرتهم في معرفة أذواق ورغبات العملاء.

 وفي هذه الحالة يجب على مندوب المبيعات كتابة تقارير يشمل كمية المنتجات أو الخدمات التي يمكن تسويقها في منطقة معينة، وغيرها من العوامل، فمندوبي المبيعات هم حلقة الوصل بين العملاء والمؤسسة.

وتتشابه هذه الطريقة نوعًا ما مع أسلوب دلفي، وهو الذي يقوم أيضًا بقياس حجم المبيعات من خلال استمارة الاستبيان، حيث يقوم بالإجابة عليها مجموعة من الخبراء والعلماء في مجالات المال والأعمال.

ويمكن تطبيق هذه الطريقة في بعض الحالات الطارئة أو في حالة تسويق منتجات وخدمات جديدة ومتنوعة، ولكن يعاب عليها عدم دقة نتائجها.

 

قد يفيدك أيضًا: نموذج تقرير مبيعات يومي جاهز من دفترة لتوفير بيانات دقيقة حول المبيعات اليومية، مما يساهم في تتبع وإدارة المبيعات.

 

3- التنبؤ التاريخي

يتم تطبيق هذه الطريقة في عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات على المدى القصير، وذلك في حالة إذا ما كانت الظروف ثابتة لا تتغير، وتكون هذه الطريقة اعتمادًا على أرقام المبيعات السابقة والتي من المتوقع أن تؤثر في الحاضر والمستقبل، ولكن يعاب على هذه الطريقة عدم دقتها، وذلك لأن ظروف السوق غير ثابتة.

 

4- اختبارات السوق الميدانية

يتم تطبيق هذه الطريقة في حالة الترويج لمنتج أو سلعة جديدة، حيث يتم تقديم الخدمة أو السلعة لقياس ومعرفة رأي العملاء حولها.

 وذلك من خلال اختيار أسواق لها نفس ظروف الأسواق المستهدفة، وتشمل ظروف هذه الأسواق تشابه حجم المنافسة، وأسعار السلع، ودخل العملاء، بجانب قنوات البيع.

كما يمكن أيضًا توفير كمية قليلة من المنتجات أو الخدمات وتجربتها في السوق الفعلي، وقياس رد فعل الجمهور حولها، وتعد هذه الطريقة مناسبة للشركات الناشئة.

 

5- مقابلة العملاء 

يتم عمل مقابلة مع بعض العملاء أو إرسال بعض الاستبيانات لهم لمعرفة أذواقهم وتصوراتهم عن المنتجات والخدمات، ومن خلال المعلومات الناتجة عن المقابلات والاستبيان يمكن توقع حجم المبيعات.

ولكن يعاب على هذه الطريقة تكلفتها العالية.

 

6- المبيعات المشابهة

وفي هذه العملية يتم وضع مؤسسة لديها منتجات أو خدمات ونشاط تجاري مشابه من حيث الموارد والتكاليف ونوعية الخدمات والمنتجات المقدمة تحت الدراسة والمقارنة، وذلك لمعرفة حجم مبيعاتها، ووفقًا لنتائج هذه العملية يمكن قياس حجم المبيعات.

 

7- المبيعات السابقة

يمكن تطبيق هذه الطريقة في حالة الرغبة لتسويق منتج أو خدمة لشريحة صغيرة من الجمهور، حيث يتم قياس حجم المبيعات وفقًا لطلبات الشراء السابقة.

 

8- أسلوب الخط المستقيم 

يعتمد  هذا الأسلوب على توقع حجم المبيعات للمؤسسة وفقًا للمؤشرات والدراسات السابقة التي تم تطبيقها على المنتجات والسلع.

 

9- الطريقة الاقتصادية

وتعتبر هذه الطريقة هي الأكثر دقة، حيث تعتمد على  قياس تأثير متوسط استهلاك الفرد خاصة فيما يتعلق بالسلع الاستهلاكية، كما تشمل هذه الطريقة أيضًا معرفة تأثير زيادة أسعار المنتجات.

وتشمل أيضًا هذه الطريقة دراسة تأثير طول دورة المبيعات وأداء مندوبي المبيعات على حجم المبيعات.

وتشمل الطريقة الاقتصادية الأنواع التالية:

 

دراسة متوسط الاستهلاك

تعتمد هذه الطريقة على دراسة المبيعات السابقة للسلع الاستهلاكية الأساسية في فترة زمنية سابقة، وتقدير حجم مبيعات هذه السلعة في الفترة الحالية أو القادمة، وفقًا لنتائج المبيعات في المدة الزمنية السابقة.

 

دراسة تأثير الدخل والرواتب

تعتمد هذه الطريقة بشكل أساسي على تغيير الحالة المادية للفرد، حيث تقوم بدراسة تأثير دخل المستهلك على الحالة الشرائية ومعدل الاستهلاك للسلع، كما تقيس هذه الطريقة مدى تغير الطلب على سلعة ما ونظرة المستهلك لهذه السلعة وفقًا لتغير الدخل.

وتشمل هذه الطريقة بعض السلع مثل الحلويات والفاكهة.

 

دراسة تأثير تغير الأسعار

تعتمد هذه الطريقة على دراسة تأثير تغير أسعار السلع على حجم مبيعاتها ومعدل الطلب عليها، وذلك في حالة تغير سعرها، وتشمل هذه الطريقة بعض المنتجات مثل اللحوم والدواجن.

 

العلاقة بين المنتجات

تعتمد هذه الطريقة على معرفة تأثير حجم مبيعات بعض المنتجات على مبيعات منتجات أخرى مرتبطة بها، مثل الدقيق والخبز، حيث يتم قياس نسبة مبيعات الدقيق على سبيل المثال، وفقًا للتغيرات الحاصلة لمبيعات الخبز.

 

10- الانحدار الخطي

تعد من أكثر الطرق المستخدمة في التنبؤ بالمبيعات، حيث تعتمد على معرفة تأثير العديد من العوامل الخارجية على نسبة الطلب على منتج أو خدمة معينة.

وتعد العوامل الخارجية هي المتغير المستقل، والطلب هو المتغير التابع.

 

ومن أهم أنواع هذا الأسلوب:

  • الانحدار البسيط : وهو الذي يركز على نسبة المبيعات بشكل عام دون دراسة تأثير العوامل الخارجية.
  •  الانحدار المحدد: حيث يركز على تأثير المتغيرات على نسبة المبيعات من فترة مالية لأخرى.
  • الانحدار الخطي: وهو يقوم على رسم خط منحدر لتحديد العلاقة بين المتغيرات، وتأثيرها على المبيعات.

 

11- النسب المئوية

يمكن  هنا التنبؤ بالمبيعات من خلال دراسة المصروفات التي سيتم إنفاقها على الأنشطة التجارية والمالية للمؤسسة، ومن ثم تحديد النسب المئوية للمبيعات والأرباح والمصروفات.

 

اقرأ أيضًا: وسائل تنشيط المبيعات وأبرز إيجابيتها وسلبياتها

 

ما هي العوامل التي تؤثر على التنبؤ بالمبيعات؟

هناك بعض  العوامل التي تؤثر على عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات وتختلف هذه العوامل من صناعة إلى أخرى وكذلك حسب تنوع مجالات العمل، ومن أبرز العوامل السائدة التي تؤثر بشكل أساسي على عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات:-

الاتجاهات السوقية 

ويقصد هنا بالاتجاهات السوقية "المتغيرات" التي تحدث ويكون لها تأثير مباشر على السوق وطبيعة العرض والطلب فيه، فعلى سبيل المثال تراجع الاقتصاد والتضخم الاقتصادي يؤدى إلى ركود البيع في الأسواق وقلة الطلب على المنتجات والخدمات، ومن ناحية أخرى ارتفاع المستوى الاجتماعي للأشخاص والتطور التكنولوجي يساعد على خلق فرص جديدة للمبيعات، كذلك تؤثر المتغيرات البيئية والسياسية على طلب المنتجات وحجم الاستثمار والتوسع الاقتصادي.

 

اهتمامات العملاء 

بالطبع يؤثر سلوك العملاء وتفضيلاتهم على عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات، لذلك من المهم مراقبة تغييرات سلوك العملاء وتوجيهاتهم وتوقعاتهم لنجاح عملية التنبؤ بالمبيعات.

 

استراتيجيات التسويق 

تؤثر استراتيجيات التسويق على التنبؤ بحجم المبيعات مثل تحديد الجمهور المستهدف، وطبيعة الحملات الاعلانية على وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي، والأساليب المُتبعة للترويج للخدمات والسلع والمنتجات.

 

المنافسة 

ظهور منافسين في سوق ومجال العمل قد يؤثر بالسلب، من خلال انخفاض المبيعات بسبب قلة الطلب على المنتج وتفضيل منتج مشابه، لذلك يجب متابعة ومراقبة المنافسين بشكل منتظم وتقييم تأثيرهم على التنبؤ بالمبيعات.

 

تحديات التنبؤ بالمبيعات

  1. التغير السريع لاتجاهات السوق وتفضيلات العملاء والمتغيرات الاقتصادية.
  2. أحيانًا تكون البيانات المستخدمة في طرق التنبؤ بالمبيعات غير دقيقة أو غير مكتملة، وهو ما يؤثر على دقة تقدير المبيعات، لذلك يجب الحرص على التحقق صحة البيانات مثل خصائص الجمهور المستهدف، ومتوسط سعر المنتج لدى المنافسين، ومزايا المنتج وهكذا.
  3. صعوبة الحسابات الموسمية للمبيعات، فالتقلبات الموسمية التي تواجهها الشركات تؤدى إلى تقديرات مبيعات غير دقيقة، ويؤثر ذلك بالطبع على كيفية تخصيص الموارد.
  4. إدخال أو تقديم أو استبدال منتجات وخدمات جديدة في الأسواق أو إيقافها بشكل مفاجئ يؤدي إلى صعوبة التنبؤ بالمبيعات التي يُمكن تحقيقها بناء على هذه الأحداث.
  5. اضطرابات العمليات اللوجستية المتعلقة بشحن ونقل وتوزيع المنتجات، أو تأخير الحصول على المواد الخام اللازمة للتشغيل، كل هذا يساهم في صعوبة تحديد نسب المبيعات المتوقعة بدقة.

 

اقرأ أيضًا: دليل شامل عن تقرير المبيعات وأهميته

 

معادلة التنبؤ بالمبيعات

هناك أكثر من معادلة أو صيغة حسابية تتكامل مع طرق توقع المبيعات ومنها:- 

  1. متوسط ​​معدل المبيعات الشهرية = إجمالي إيرادات المبيعات ÷ عدد الأشهر
  2. إيرادات المبيعات المحتملة لبقية العام = متوسط ​​معدل المبيعات الشهرية × (عدد الشهور في السنة - عدد الأشهر حتى الآن)
  3. التنبؤ بالمبيعات السنوية = إجمالي إيرادات المبيعات + إيرادات المبيعات المحتملة لبقية العام

 

كيف يفيدك دفترة في التنبؤ بالمبيعات؟

برنامج المبيعات من دفترة يتيح لك مجموعة متنوعة من التقارير يمكنك استخدامها كمؤشرات على المبيعات المستقبلية. وهو ما يجعل عملية التخطيط أفضل ويفيدك في التوازن بين العرض والطلب ويجعل التعامل مع الموردين في صورته الأفضل لتحقيق مستوى مخزوني مريح على مدار السنة المالية، مع أخذ فترات المواسم والركود في الاعتبار بناءً على تحليل تقارير المبيعات المتاحة لك من النظام.

التنبؤ بالمبيعات في دفترة

 

ختاماً

يمكن القول أن التنبؤ بالمبيعات هو أمر ضروري لا يقل أهمية عن تحقيق الأرباح، ولذلك فلابد من اختيار أنسب طرق وأساليب التنبؤ بدقة وفقًا لحجم الشركة ونشاطها وتوجهاتها.

حيث تساعد هذه العملية المؤسسة على معرفة حجم مواردها، ومتي وكيف يمكن استخدامها وتخصيصها، بالإضافة إلى مساهمتها في إعداد الميزانية وتخطيط دورات الإنتاج وزيادة حجم المبيعات.

 ويقوم التنبؤ بالمبيعات على توقع حجم ونسبة مبيعات المنتجات والسلع التي تروج لها الشركة، أو نسبة استخدامات العملاء للخدمات خلال فترة مالية أو موسم تجاري معين، أي أنها تركز على حجم الأرباح والإيرادات. فالتنبؤ هنا ليس مجرد توقع بل هو دليل لإخبار المؤسسة بضرورة القيام ببعض الخطوات في الوقت الحاضر لضمان بقاء المؤسسة ونجاحها في السوق.

 

إدارة متطورة لمبيعاتك

برنامج المبيعات من دفترة يمكنك من إصدار التقارير اللازمة لعملية احترافية للتنبؤ بالمبيعات 

​​إشترك الأن مجانا

إدارة متطورة لمبيعاتك

برنامج المبيعات من دفترة يمكنك من إصدار التقارير اللازمة لعملية احترافية للتنبؤ بالمبيعات 

​​إشترك الأن مجانا

اخر المقالات

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7/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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9/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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10/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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11/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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13/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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14/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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15/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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16/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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17/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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18/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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19/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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21/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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23/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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24/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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25/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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26/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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29/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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30/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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31/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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32/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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33/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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34/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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35/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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36/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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37/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
38/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
39/*partner.php:19*/SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `partners`
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881
40/*partner.php:19*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
41/*partner.php:19*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
42/*partner.php:19*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
43/**/SELECT `Partner`.`id`, `Partner`.`name`, `Partner`.`image`, `Partner`.`url`, `Partner`.`display_order`, `Partner`.`active`, `Partner`.`created`, `Partner`.`modified` FROM `partners` AS `Partner` WHERE `active` = 1 ORDER BY `display_order` ASC LIMIT 5
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550
44/**/SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `country_ips`
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11115
45/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_unicode_ci';
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111
46/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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115
47/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
48/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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114
49/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
50/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
51/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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113
52/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
53/**/SELECT code FROM country_ips WHERE 167864903 BETWEEN start AND end
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000
54/*language.php:18*/SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `languages`
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771
55/*language.php:18*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_unicode_ci';
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111
56/*language.php:18*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_unicode_ci';
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111
57/*language.php:18*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_unicode_ci';
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111
58/*language.php:18*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
59/**/SELECT `Language`.`id`, `Language`.`code2`, `Language`.`code3`, `Language`.`name`, `Language`.`ar_name`, `Language`.`parent_id`, `Language`.`active` FROM `languages` AS `Language` WHERE `Language`.`code2` IN ('en', 'ar')
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220
60/*landing_pages_category.php:21*/SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `landing_pages_categories`
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551
61/*landing_pages_category.php:21*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb4_unicode_ci';
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111
62/*landing_pages_category.php:21*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb4_unicode_ci';
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111
63/*landing_page.php:24*/SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `landing_pages_r`
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23231
64/*landing_page.php:24*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_unicode_ci';
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111
65/*landing_page.php:24*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_unicode_ci';
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111
66/*landing_page.php:24*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
67/*landing_page.php:24*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_unicode_ci';
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111
68/*landing_page.php:24*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
69/*landing_page.php:24*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
70/*landing_page.php:24*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
71/*landing_page.php:24*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
72/*landing_page.php:24*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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1112
73/*landing_page.php:24*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
74/*landing_page.php:24*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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112
75/*landing_page.php:24*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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113
76/*landing_page.php:24*/SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `landing_pages_categories_landing_pages`
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334
77/**/SELECT `LandingPagesCategory`.`id`, `LandingPagesCategory`.`title`, `LandingPagesCategory`.`small_description` FROM `landing_pages_categories` AS `LandingPagesCategory` WHERE `LandingPagesCategory`.`type` = 0 AND `LandingPagesCategory`.`language_id` = 7 ORDER BY `id` ASC
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10101
78/**/SELECT `LandingPage`.`id`, `LandingPage`.`title`, `LandingPage`.`icon`, `LandingPage`.`permalink`, `LandingPagesCategoriesLandingPage`.`id`, `LandingPagesCategoriesLandingPage`.`landing_pages_category_id`, `LandingPagesCategoriesLandingPage`.`landing_page_id` FROM `landing_pages_r` AS `LandingPage` JOIN `landing_pages_categories_landing_pages` AS `LandingPagesCategoriesLandingPage` ON (`LandingPagesCategoriesLandingPage`.`landing_pages_category_id` IN (15, 17, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, 31, 33, 37) AND `LandingPagesCategoriesLandingPage`.`landing_page_id` = `LandingPage`.`id`)
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13131
79/**/SELECT `LandingPagesCategory`.`id`, `LandingPagesCategory`.`title`, `LandingPagesCategory`.`small_description` FROM `landing_pages_categories` AS `LandingPagesCategory` WHERE `LandingPagesCategory`.`type` = 1 AND `LandingPagesCategory`.`language_id` = 7 ORDER BY `id` ASC
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000
80/*snippet.php:14*/SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `snippets_r`
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443
81/*snippet.php:14*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
82/*snippet.php:14*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
83/*snippet.php:14*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_general_ci';
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111
84/**/SELECT `Snippet`.`id`, `Snippet`.`name`, `Snippet`.`title`, `Snippet`.`content` FROM `snippets_r` AS `Snippet` WHERE `Snippet`.`name` = 'Module-right-side-navbar' LIMIT 1
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003
85/**/SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `plugin_groups`
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882
86/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb4_unicode_ci';
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111
87/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb4_unicode_ci';
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111
88/**/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb4_unicode_ci';
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111
89/**/SELECT `PluginGroups`.`id`, `PluginGroups`.`title` FROM `plugin_groups` AS `PluginGroups` WHERE `language_id` = 7 ORDER BY `display_order` ASC
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774
90/**/SELECT `LandingPage`.`id`, `LandingPage`.`title`, `LandingPage`.`top_title`, `LandingPage`.`short_title`, `LandingPage`.`permalink`, `LandingPage`.`icon_class`, `LandingPage`.`icon` FROM `landing_pages_r` AS `LandingPage` WHERE `language_id` = 7 AND `type` = 0 AND `plugin_group_id` = 8 ORDER BY `display_order` ASC
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772
91/**/SELECT `LandingPage`.`id`, `LandingPage`.`title`, `LandingPage`.`top_title`, `LandingPage`.`short_title`, `LandingPage`.`permalink`, `LandingPage`.`icon_class`, `LandingPage`.`icon` FROM `landing_pages_r` AS `LandingPage` WHERE `language_id` = 7 AND `type` = 0 AND `plugin_group_id` = 9 ORDER BY `display_order` ASC
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442
92/**/SELECT `LandingPage`.`id`, `LandingPage`.`title`, `LandingPage`.`top_title`, `LandingPage`.`short_title`, `LandingPage`.`permalink`, `LandingPage`.`icon_class`, `LandingPage`.`icon` FROM `landing_pages_r` AS `LandingPage` WHERE `language_id` = 7 AND `type` = 0 AND `plugin_group_id` = 10 ORDER BY `display_order` ASC
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551
93/**/SELECT `LandingPage`.`id`, `LandingPage`.`title`, `LandingPage`.`top_title`, `LandingPage`.`short_title`, `LandingPage`.`permalink`, `LandingPage`.`icon_class`, `LandingPage`.`icon` FROM `landing_pages_r` AS `LandingPage` WHERE `language_id` = 7 AND `type` = 0 AND `plugin_group_id` = 11 ORDER BY `display_order` ASC
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552
94/**/SELECT `LandingPage`.`id`, `LandingPage`.`title`, `LandingPage`.`top_title`, `LandingPage`.`short_title`, `LandingPage`.`permalink`, `LandingPage`.`icon_class`, `LandingPage`.`icon` FROM `landing_pages_r` AS `LandingPage` WHERE `language_id` = 7 AND `type` = 0 AND `plugin_group_id` = 12 ORDER BY `display_order` ASC
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662
95/**/SELECT `LandingPage`.`id`, `LandingPage`.`title`, `LandingPage`.`top_title`, `LandingPage`.`short_title`, `LandingPage`.`permalink`, `LandingPage`.`icon_class`, `LandingPage`.`icon` FROM `landing_pages_r` AS `LandingPage` WHERE `language_id` = 7 AND `type` = 0 AND `plugin_group_id` = 13 ORDER BY `display_order` ASC
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442
96/**/SELECT `LandingPage`.`id`, `LandingPage`.`title`, `LandingPage`.`top_title`, `LandingPage`.`short_title`, `LandingPage`.`permalink`, `LandingPage`.`icon_class`, `LandingPage`.`icon` FROM `landing_pages_r` AS `LandingPage` WHERE `language_id` = 7 AND `type` = 0 AND `plugin_group_id` = 17 ORDER BY `display_order` ASC
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001
97/**/SELECT `LandingPage`.`id`, `LandingPage`.`title`, `LandingPage`.`top_title`, `LandingPage`.`short_title`, `LandingPage`.`permalink`, `LandingPage`.`icon` FROM `landing_pages_r` AS `LandingPage` WHERE `language_id` = 7 AND `type` = 1 ORDER BY `display_order` ASC
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12121
98/**/SELECT `LandingPagesCategory`.`id`, `LandingPagesCategory`.`title`, `LandingPagesCategory`.`small_description`, `LandingPagesCategory`.`type`, `LandingPagesCategory`.`language_id`, `LandingPagesCategoriesLandingPage`.`id`, `LandingPagesCategoriesLandingPage`.`landing_pages_category_id`, `LandingPagesCategoriesLandingPage`.`landing_page_id` FROM `landing_pages_categories` AS `LandingPagesCategory` JOIN `landing_pages_categories_landing_pages` AS `LandingPagesCategoriesLandingPage` ON (`LandingPagesCategoriesLandingPage`.`landing_page_id` IN (1000061, 1000060, 1000047, 1000056, 1000045, 1000043, 1000081, 1000091, 1000076, 1000068, 1000070, 1000074) AND `LandingPagesCategoriesLandingPage`.`landing_pages_category_id` = `LandingPagesCategory`.`id`)
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12120
99/**/SELECT `Snippet`.`id`, `Snippet`.`name`, `Snippet`.`title`, `Snippet`.`content` FROM `snippets_r` AS `Snippet` WHERE `Snippet`.`name` = 'module_left_column_ar' LIMIT 1
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110
100/**/SELECT `Snippet`.`id`, `Snippet`.`name`, `Snippet`.`title`, `Snippet`.`content` FROM `snippets_r` AS `Snippet` WHERE `Snippet`.`name` = 'footer_ar' LIMIT 1
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110
101/**/SELECT `HubPost`.`id`, `HubPost`.`hub_author_id`, `HubPost`.`url`, `HubPost`.`title`, `HubPost`.`content`, `HubPost`.`meta_title`, `HubPost`.`meta_description`, `HubPost`.`head_section`, `HubPost`.`redirect_url`, `HubPost`.`post_img`, `HubPost`.`img_alt`, `HubPost`.`created`, `HubPost`.`hub_category_id`, `HubPost`.`featured`, `HubPost`.`desktop_card`, `HubPost`.`mobile_card`, `HubPost`.`moblie_button`, `HubPost`.`modified`, `HubPost`.`reviewed_by_id`, `HubPost`.`active`, `HubPost`.`post_thumbnail`, `HubPost`.`lang`, `HubPost`.`related_post`, `HubCategory`.`id`, `HubCategory`.`name`, `HubCategory`.`url`, `HubCategory`.`meta_title`, `HubCategory`.`meta_description`, `HubCategory`.`head_section`, `HubCategory`.`redirect_url`, `HubCategory`.`created`, `HubCategory`.`modified`, `HubCategory`.`description`, `HubCategory`.`icon`, `HubCategory`.`icon_alt`, `HubCategory`.`lang`, `HubAuthor`.`id`, `HubAuthor`.`username`, `HubAuthor`.`job`, `HubAuthor`.`description`, `HubAuthor`.`slug`, `HubAuthor`.`author_img`, `HubAuthor`.`img_alt`, `HubAuthor`.`facebook_link`, `HubAuthor`.`twitter_link`, `HubAuthor`.`linkedin_link`, `HubAuthor`.`created`, `HubAuthor`.`modified`, `HubAuthor`.`head_section_script`, `HubAuthor`.`lang` FROM `hub_posts` AS `HubPost` LEFT JOIN `hub_categories` AS `HubCategory` ON (`HubPost`.`hub_category_id` = `HubCategory`.`id`) LEFT JOIN `hub_authors` AS `HubAuthor` ON (`HubPost`.`hub_author_id` = `HubAuthor`.`id`) WHERE `HubPost`.`url` = 'التنبؤ-بالمبيعات' AND `HubPost`.`active` = 1 LIMIT 1
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1111
102/**/SELECT `HubPost`.`id`, `HubPost`.`hub_author_id`, `HubPost`.`url`, `HubPost`.`title`, `HubPost`.`content`, `HubPost`.`meta_title`, `HubPost`.`meta_description`, `HubPost`.`head_section`, `HubPost`.`redirect_url`, `HubPost`.`post_img`, `HubPost`.`img_alt`, `HubPost`.`created`, `HubPost`.`hub_category_id`, `HubPost`.`featured`, `HubPost`.`desktop_card`, `HubPost`.`mobile_card`, `HubPost`.`moblie_button`, `HubPost`.`modified`, `HubPost`.`reviewed_by_id`, `HubPost`.`active`, `HubPost`.`post_thumbnail`, `HubPost`.`lang`, `HubPost`.`related_post`, `HubCategory`.`id`, `HubCategory`.`name`, `HubCategory`.`url`, `HubCategory`.`meta_title`, `HubCategory`.`meta_description`, `HubCategory`.`head_section`, `HubCategory`.`redirect_url`, `HubCategory`.`created`, `HubCategory`.`modified`, `HubCategory`.`description`, `HubCategory`.`icon`, `HubCategory`.`icon_alt`, `HubCategory`.`lang`, `HubAuthor`.`id`, `HubAuthor`.`username`, `HubAuthor`.`job`, `HubAuthor`.`description`, `HubAuthor`.`slug`, `HubAuthor`.`author_img`, `HubAuthor`.`img_alt`, `HubAuthor`.`facebook_link`, `HubAuthor`.`twitter_link`, `HubAuthor`.`linkedin_link`, `HubAuthor`.`created`, `HubAuthor`.`modified`, `HubAuthor`.`head_section_script`, `HubAuthor`.`lang` FROM `hub_posts` AS `HubPost` LEFT JOIN `hub_categories` AS `HubCategory` ON (`HubPost`.`hub_category_id` = `HubCategory`.`id`) LEFT JOIN `hub_authors` AS `HubAuthor` ON (`HubPost`.`hub_author_id` = `HubAuthor`.`id`) WHERE `HubPost`.`hub_category_id` = 11 AND NOT (`HubPost`.`id` = 271) AND ((`HubPost`.`redirect_url` IS NULL) OR (`HubPost`.`redirect_url` = '')) ORDER BY RAND() ASC LIMIT 6
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666
103/**/SELECT `HubAuthor`.`id`, `HubAuthor`.`username`, `HubAuthor`.`job`, `HubAuthor`.`description`, `HubAuthor`.`slug`, `HubAuthor`.`author_img`, `HubAuthor`.`img_alt`, `HubAuthor`.`facebook_link`, `HubAuthor`.`twitter_link`, `HubAuthor`.`linkedin_link`, `HubAuthor`.`created`, `HubAuthor`.`modified`, `HubAuthor`.`head_section_script`, `HubAuthor`.`lang` FROM `hub_authors` AS `HubAuthor` WHERE `HubAuthor`.`id` = 0 LIMIT 1
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006
104/**/SELECT `HubAuthor`.`id`, `HubAuthor`.`username`, `HubAuthor`.`job`, `HubAuthor`.`description`, `HubAuthor`.`slug`, `HubAuthor`.`author_img`, `HubAuthor`.`img_alt`, `HubAuthor`.`facebook_link`, `HubAuthor`.`twitter_link`, `HubAuthor`.`linkedin_link`, `HubAuthor`.`created`, `HubAuthor`.`modified`, `HubAuthor`.`head_section_script`, `HubAuthor`.`lang` FROM `hub_authors` AS `HubAuthor` WHERE `HubAuthor`.`id` = 11 LIMIT 1
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110
105/*seo.php:12*/SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `seos`
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771
106/*seo.php:12*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_unicode_ci';
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111
107/*seo.php:12*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_unicode_ci';
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/home/fortebounce/public_html/controllers/hub_controller.php (47)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (205)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (172)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/webroot/index.php (303)
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108/*seo.php:12*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_unicode_ci';
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (540)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (405)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo/dbo_mysqli.php (371)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo/dbo_mysql.php (148)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/model.php (941)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/model.php (792)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/model.php (483)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/models/seo.php (12)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/class_registry.php (142)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/controller/controller.php (635)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/app_controller.php (696)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/app_controller.php (544)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/controller/controller.php (866)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/controllers/hub_controller.php (47)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (205)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (172)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/webroot/index.php (303)
111
109/*seo.php:12*/SELECT CHARACTER_SET_NAME FROM INFORMATION_SCHEMA.COLLATIONS WHERE COLLATION_NAME= 'utf8mb3_unicode_ci';
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (540)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (405)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo/dbo_mysqli.php (371)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo/dbo_mysql.php (148)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/model.php (941)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/model.php (792)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/model.php (483)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/models/seo.php (12)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/class_registry.php (142)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/controller/controller.php (635)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/app_controller.php (696)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/app_controller.php (544)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/controller/controller.php (866)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/controllers/hub_controller.php (47)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (205)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (172)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/webroot/index.php (303)
111
110/**/SELECT `Seo`.`id`, `Seo`.`criteria`, `Seo`.`title`, `Seo`.`keywords`, `Seo`.`description`, `Seo`.`created`, `Seo`.`updated` FROM `seos` AS `Seo` WHERE ',/hub/التنبؤ-بالمبيعات,' LIKE CONCAT('%,',criteria,',%') LIMIT 1
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (540)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (965)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/model.php (2156)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/app_controller.php (699)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/app_controller.php (544)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/controller/controller.php (866)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/controllers/hub_controller.php (47)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (205)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (172)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/webroot/index.php (303)
002
111/**/SELECT `LandingPage`.`id`, `LandingPage`.`title`, `LandingPage`.`permalink`, `LandingPage`.`redirect_url`, `LandingPage`.`content`, `LandingPage`.`active`, `LandingPage`.`hits`, `LandingPage`.`type`, `LandingPage`.`top_title`, `LandingPage`.`short_title`, `LandingPage`.`icon_class`, `LandingPage`.`created`, `LandingPage`.`modified`, `LandingPage`.`system_industry_id`, `LandingPage`.`plugin_group_id`, `LandingPage`.`language_id`, `LandingPage`.`display_order`, `LandingPage`.`icon`, `LandingPage`.`keywords`, `LandingPage`.`head_script`, `LandingPage`.`last_modification`, `LandingPage`.`meta_title`, `LandingPage`.`meta_description` FROM `landing_pages_r` AS `LandingPage` WHERE `LandingPage`.`type` = 0 AND `LandingPage`.`active` = 1
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (540)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (965)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/model.php (2156)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/app_controller.php (558)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/app_controller.php (547)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/controller/controller.php (866)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/controllers/hub_controller.php (47)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (205)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (172)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/webroot/index.php (303)
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112/**/SELECT `HubCategory`.`id`, `HubCategory`.`name`, `HubCategory`.`url`, `HubCategory`.`meta_title`, `HubCategory`.`meta_description`, `HubCategory`.`head_section`, `HubCategory`.`redirect_url`, `HubCategory`.`created`, `HubCategory`.`modified`, `HubCategory`.`description`, `HubCategory`.`icon`, `HubCategory`.`icon_alt`, `HubCategory`.`lang` FROM `hub_categories` AS `HubCategory` JOIN `hub_posts` AS `HubPost` ON (`HubCategory`.`id` = `HubPost`.`hub_category_id`) WHERE 1 = 1 GROUP BY `HubCategory`.`id`
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (540)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (965)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/model.php (2156)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/app_controller.php (1493)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/app_controller.php (549)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/controller/controller.php (866)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/controllers/hub_controller.php (47)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (205)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (172)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/webroot/index.php (303)
5513
113/**/SELECT `HubPost`.`id`, `HubPost`.`hub_author_id`, `HubPost`.`url`, `HubPost`.`title`, `HubPost`.`content`, `HubPost`.`meta_title`, `HubPost`.`meta_description`, `HubPost`.`head_section`, `HubPost`.`redirect_url`, `HubPost`.`post_img`, `HubPost`.`img_alt`, `HubPost`.`created`, `HubPost`.`hub_category_id`, `HubPost`.`featured`, `HubPost`.`desktop_card`, `HubPost`.`mobile_card`, `HubPost`.`moblie_button`, `HubPost`.`modified`, `HubPost`.`reviewed_by_id`, `HubPost`.`active`, `HubPost`.`post_thumbnail`, `HubPost`.`lang`, `HubPost`.`related_post` FROM `hub_posts` AS `HubPost` WHERE `HubPost`.`hub_category_id` IN (5, 7, 11, 13, 15) ORDER BY `HubPost`.`created` DESC
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (540)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (1232)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (1093)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (995)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/model.php (2156)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/app_controller.php (1493)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/app_controller.php (549)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/controller/controller.php (866)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/controllers/hub_controller.php (47)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (205)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (172)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/webroot/index.php (303)
10010030
114/**/SELECT `LandingPage`.`id`, `LandingPage`.`title`, `LandingPage`.`permalink`, `LandingPage`.`redirect_url`, `LandingPage`.`content`, `LandingPage`.`active`, `LandingPage`.`hits`, `LandingPage`.`type`, `LandingPage`.`top_title`, `LandingPage`.`short_title`, `LandingPage`.`icon_class`, `LandingPage`.`created`, `LandingPage`.`modified`, `LandingPage`.`system_industry_id`, `LandingPage`.`plugin_group_id`, `LandingPage`.`language_id`, `LandingPage`.`display_order`, `LandingPage`.`icon`, `LandingPage`.`keywords`, `LandingPage`.`head_script`, `LandingPage`.`last_modification`, `LandingPage`.`meta_title`, `LandingPage`.`meta_description` FROM `landing_pages_r` AS `LandingPage` WHERE `LandingPage`.`type` = 1 AND `LandingPage`.`active` = 1
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (540)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/datasources/dbo_source.php (965)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/model/model.php (2156)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/app_controller.php (551)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/libs/controller/controller.php (866)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/controllers/hub_controller.php (47)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (205)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/cake/dispatcher.php (172)
/home/fortebounce/public_html/webroot/index.php (303)
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